Key points

• Monthly ascending channel
• August Peak at $43,71
• 4 week trading cycle
• Bullish trend with huge swings

Prices are trading above the linear regression line in a sign of impressive bullish momentum. For a greater part of the last three months, prices have been oscillating below this line as bulls were being capped off slightly below the $42 handle. The monthly ascending channel has been pivotal in keeping prices afloat and trading close to the key psychological price of $40 per barrel.  

In the channel, prices might fall back to retest the support region around the $42 handle before the bullish trend can continue further up. The immediate bullish target is just below $44 per barrel. The August 2020 peak at $43,71 is the key target and a break beyond this level will see prices challenging the upper resistance line of the channel. In that case, the $45-$46 will be the prime target zone.

A monthly trading cycle has characterised the oil market since the massive price drop that transpired during the beginning of September. Picking a hint from that cycle, prices might be set for a correction either back to linear regression line zone or the lower resistance line. This is a possibility which can’t be ruled, that’s is the market might witness a retest of the $40 handle before a strong rally towards the $45 price tag.

The general short to medium term trend has been bullish for several months now. However, massive price swings onto the downside have betrayed the progress of the bullish drive. In September there was a bullish Golden Crossover but bulls haven yet manage to fully capitalise the crossover. The 60 Moving Average is still to turn upwards, however it recently offered a strong support to price acting at the $40 region.

The 200 MA is pointing downwards as indication that the long-term bias hasn’t significantly shifted to the upside. Price action is now significantly trading far away from the 200 Moving Average and in the event of continued price rally the 200 MA will catch up or price will correct back towards its value line.

Trends

Moving Average	Simple	Exponential
60	39.71 BUY	39.98 BUY
100	40.51 BUY	39.68 BUY
200	36.22 BUY	40.69 BUY

Pivot Points (Daily)

Name	S3	S2	S1	Pivot	R1	R2	R3
US-Oil	42.18	42.27	42.38	42.47	42.58	42.67	42.78
Brent-Oil	44.98	45.06	45.15	45.23	42.32	45.40	45.59
Natural Gas	2.781	2.792	2.801	2.812	2.812	2.832	2.841

Pivot Points (Weekly)

Name	S3	S2	S1	Pivot	R1	R2	R3
US-Oil	38.41	39.28	40.72	41.59	43.03	43.90	45.34
Brent-Oil	40.83	41.77	43.36	44.30	45.89	46.83	48.42
Natural Gas	2.125	2.325	2.487	2.687	2.849	3.049	3.211